Prof. Dr. Ayhan yazdı: “İran’ın İsrail’e Saldırısı”

Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi (BAİBÜ) Öğretim Görevlisi Prof. Dr. Veysel Ayhan, “İran'ın İsrail’e Saldırısı: Zamanlaması ve Stratejik Anlamı Üzerine” başlıklı yazı kaleme aldı.

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Bolu Abant \u0130zzet Baysal \u00dcniversitesi (BA\u0130B\u00dc) \u00d6\u011fretim G\u00f6revlisi Prof. Dr. Veysel Ayhan\u2019\u0131n yaz\u0131s\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle;

\u201c1 Ekim 2024 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran \u0130srail\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 2. kez balistik ve sibersonik f\u00fczelerle kar\u015f\u0131 misillemede bulundu. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanan a\u00e7\u0131klamada sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u0130smail Haniye, Seyyid Hasan Nasrallah ve Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 T\u00fcmgeneral Abbas Nilfuru\u015fan\u2019\u0131n \u015fehadetine yan\u0131t olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011fi belirtildi. Sald\u0131r\u0131 talimat\u0131n\u0131n Y\u00fcksek Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin onay\u0131 ve Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetler Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n talimat\u0131yla, \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti Ordusu ve Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011fi belirtildi. \u00d6te yandan \u0130srail h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ise \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ile cevap verilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.

\u0130ran taraf\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 \u0130srail\u2019in s\u00fcikastlerine bir misilleme olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n zaman\u0131 ve statejik anlam\u0131n\u0131 daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte analiz etmekte fayda vard\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda;

1)\u0130srail\u2019in 30 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n i\u015fgali i\u00e7in siyasi ve askeri kararlar almas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131 i\u015fgaline y\u00f6nelik somut ad\u0131mlar att\u0131. \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 lider kadrosunu kaybetmi\u015f ve moral motivasyon olarak zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n askeri olarak toparlanmas\u0131na ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesine yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Aksi durumda Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n 2006\u2019daki benzer bir direni\u015f g\u00f6stermesi olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7 olacakt\u0131r.

2-Sald\u0131r\u0131 zamanlama olarak \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan i\u015fgaline kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sessiz kalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hem \u0130srail\u2019e hem de ate\u015fkes konusunda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 yan\u0131ltan ABD ve AB \u00fclkelerine bir cevapt\u0131. \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan bir a\u00e7\u0131klamada Haniye\u2019nin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden sonra \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n misilleme yapmamas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130srail\u2019in Gazze\u2019de ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 kabul edece\u011fi ifade edilmi\u015fti. \u0130ran taraf\u0131 Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin ate\u015fkes konusunda kendilerini yan\u0131lt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130srail\u2019in Hizbullah liderlerine sald\u0131r\u0131 ve daha sonra L\u00fcbnan i\u015fgaline haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in zaman kazand\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmektedir.

3- \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 t\u00fcm Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki milis kuvvetlerinin olas\u0131 L\u00fcbnan i\u015fgaliyle birlikte \u0130srail\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015fa m\u00fcdahil olmalar\u0131na moral motivasyon ve inan\u00e7 olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fi ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclebilir.

4-7 Ekim sonras\u0131 Gazze Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 da i\u00e7ene alacak \u015fekilde geni\u015flemesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n Tahran, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011fi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere askeri kar\u015f\u0131 koyma ve savunma kapasitesine d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destekler ald\u0131. \u0130ran yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 y\u0131ld\u0131r \u0130srail ile do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmek yerine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yo\u011funluklu ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak diplomatik d\u00fczeyde kalan bir kriz y\u00f6netimi benimsedi. Nasrallah\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n lider kadrolar\u0131na suikastler ve L\u00fcbnan i\u015fgaline d\u00f6n\u00fck s\u0131n\u0131ra ciddi asker kayd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fczerine \u0130ran da kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 yapmak zorunda kald\u0131.

5-\u0130srail\u2019e ve \u00f6zellikle Netanyahu h\u00fck\u00fcmetine, \u00fcst d\u00fczey \u0130ran, Yemen, Suriye ve L\u00fcbnanl\u0131 komutanlara d\u00fczenledi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n cevaps\u0131z kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131 verildi.

6- Netanyahu\u2019nun politikalar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019i sald\u0131r\u0131lara a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u00fclke haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc mesaj\u0131 t\u00fcm Yahudilere verildi. Bu durum \u0130srail\u2019den AB ve ABD\u2019ye Yahudi g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc tetikleyebilir.

7- Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019i sald\u0131r\u0131lardan koruma stratejilerinin ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hem \u0130srailli yetkililere hem de Bat\u0131l\u0131 liderlere g\u00f6sterildi.

8-Gazze sonras\u0131 L\u00fcbnan ve Yemen\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 kapsaml\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olan \u0130srail\u2019e ve onun destekcilerine, Sava\u015f\u0131n \u0130srail a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da maliyetleri olaca\u011f\u0131 ilk kez a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6sterildi.

9-\u0130srail\u2019in olas\u0131 i\u015fgaline kar\u015f\u0131 milis kuvvetlerine hem birlikte ortak bir askeri ve ideolojik paradigman\u0131n par\u00e7alar\u0131y\u0131z hem de olas\u0131 sava\u015fta birlikteyiz mesaj\u0131 verildi. Bu mesaj direni\u015f gruplar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir savunma ve sald\u0131r\u0131 stratejisi ile hareket etmelerinde \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r

10-Netanyahu h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na cevab\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden \u00e7ok daha sert olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Netanyahu sald\u0131r\u0131lara sert cevap vermedi\u011fi takdirde ya istifa ya da ate\u015fkes yapmak zorunda kalacakt\u0131r. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalarda t\u0131rmanma durdurulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar genllikle kapsaml\u0131 bir sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u2026","created_at":"2024-10-02T07:55:18.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-10-02T07:57:54.000000Z"}